Türkiye’s cotton harvest forecast to fall 38 percent

The country’s seed cotton harvest is projected to be 38 percent smaller in 2026-2027, with output put at 1.2 million tons, according to a Hürriyet Daily News report. Gathering has begun, yet higher input bills and the Middle East conflict are altering planting choices, and growers are turning to wheat and corn. The same report forecasts a 2 percent dip in world cotton output this season.

Türkiye’s statistical office, TÜİK, gives the same 1.2 million-ton figure in its second-crop estimate, a level the report describes as among the weakest in 35 years. ÇUKOBİRLİK will pay 41.50 Turkish Liras for a kilogram of first-grade white cotton that gins out at 42 percent, and 40.5 liras for spotted cotton. The report separates raw seed cotton from lint cotton, the fibre that has been processed for use.

With prices failing to match cost inflation, planted land has shrunk and alternatives such as wheat, corn and sunflower have gained ground. Fertiliser, diesel, energy, seed and labour costs, plus the Middle East war’s effect on inputs, are expected to influence the new season. Aydın supplies 11.6 percent of national cotton output, ahead of İzmir at 6.7 percent and Manisa at 3.4 percent.

In the Aegean region, İzmir Commodity Exchange Assembly chair Bülent Uçak said cotton area had decreased 47 percent to 49,454 decares. Regional lint cotton output was 188,000 tons in 2024-2025 and is expected to reach 93,700 tons in 2026-2027. Şanlıurfa, which produces 41.7 percent of the national crop, has seen its cotton area shrink from 1.7 million decares to 800,000 decares.

Ahmet Eyyüpoğlu, head of the Haliliye Chamber of Agriculture and a board member at the Union of Turkish Chambers of Agriculture, said cotton prices had stayed unchanged for three years. He put the cost of producing a kilogram at roughly 40 liras this year, up from 30 liras last year, and argued that the purchase price should be at least 50 liras per kilogram. In Salihli, Manisa, Cem Yalvaç of the local chamber of agriculture said the district’s cotton area had fallen from 65,000-70,000 decares in 2012 to 3,000-4,000 decares, while the number of cotton-growing villages had dropped from 12 or 13 to two. Growers there have moved to corn, tobacco, peppers and watermelons, he said.

A report from Türkiye’s Agriculture and Forestry Ministry lists several forces likely to shape the global cotton market next season: Middle East geopolitical developments and their impact on input costs, possible drought damage to U.S. output, oil prices and cotton’s ability to compete with polyester, and Chinese policies designed to raise yields.